专访达利欧:全球债务危机有可能发生 可预见2024年及以后将迎大萧条
本期策划为《经济大家说》第026期
本期嘉宾|瑞·达利欧,桥水基金创始人
文|腾讯财经 祝玉婷/郝博阳
“有五种主要驱动力是不能忽视的,包括债务问题、内部政治、外部地缘政治、自然行为、技术变革。”桥水基金创始人达利欧在2023清华五道口全球金融论坛上指出:“5年后,这个世界将是一个完全不同的世界。”
针对美国部分中小银行风险问题,达利欧在论坛上也表示:这不仅仅是一个地区银行问题,它将影响一些有不良资产负债错配的机构,这是一个资产负债表类型的问题。“央行要有平衡利率和货币紧缩的政策,这样利率才能高到足以补偿通货膨胀,并向债权人支付不足的回报。否则,他们会出售债券,因为相对于通货膨胀来说,利率太低了,他们会卖掉债券。另一方面,相对于债务人来说,利率可能如此之高,以至于债务人很难偿还债务,面临着严重的供需失衡。”
达利欧也坦言,25年来在做投资方法时,会思考做出决定的标准,并写下来、转化为算法,使用它来建立一个思考和沟通的系统。“现在,沿着这个思路,当我们进入 ‘生成式人工智能环境’,这种新型的智能时,每一个维度都将涉及到几乎每个人都将与之合作、处理几乎所有的决策。”达利欧补充道:“当然,对于我们的决策,我会和它聊天,我会用这种方式做出指示。但每个人都会以自己的方式去做。这一变化是一个根本性的变化。”
会后,针对五个主要驱动力、全球债券购买和融资行为导致的潜在资产负债表错配及供需问题、以及使用生成式AI做投资决策等话题,达利欧接受了来自腾讯财经的进一步专访。
达利欧对腾讯财经表示:“我们可以预见一段时间的大萧条,尤其是在2024年及以后。”他提出,在所有重要领域都需要进行重大的结构性变革。比如在平衡的方式下进行债务重组和货币化,他称之为“美丽的去杠杆化”。
面对资产负债表错配和供需问题,他对腾讯财经坦言:全球性的债务危机是有可能发生的,但不会是私人债务,它将与政府债务和大量印钞有关。“在巨额赤字的情况下,债券供应相对于需求可能过多,因此全世界央行,包括最重要的美联储,将不得不通过印钞买债券来弥补购买需求的不足。”
对于AI与投资原则的融合,他表示:“正在实验”。达利欧惊讶于生成式人工智能(GAI)的表现,要看看它能否成为工作中的决策伙伴。
以下为腾讯财经专访达利欧的对话实录:
腾讯财经:在与朱民的对话中,您指出“五年后世界将是一个完全不同的世界”。 您确定了五个主要驱动力:债务问题、内部政治、外部地缘政治、自然行为和技术变革。 您认为其中哪一项最具挑战性或不确定性? 未来五年,政府、企业、个人该如何应对?
达利欧:我们不需要对五种力量中的某一种给予更特别的关注,它们之间的每一种都是相辅相成的,推动大环境往好的或坏的方向发展,大变革只会在五种力量的共同作用下发生。
当五种力量都变得有破坏性(即当前正在发生的)、且有可能在未来几年持续变坏的情况下,我们可以预见一段时间的大萧条,尤其是在2024年及以后。
至于政府该做些什么,历史告诉我们,有作为的政府在此时首先不能容忍极端主义的萌芽,其次要保持极度的克制,同时还要能推动重大的结构性改革。像我在我的书《应对大债务危机的原则》中所描述的那样,在平衡的方式下进行债务重组和货币化,我称之为“美丽的去杠杆化”,即为结构性改革的一个例子。
除此之外,在所有重要领域都需要进行重大的结构性变革。
腾讯财经:您讨论了全球债券购买和融资行为以及这些行为可能导致的潜在资产负债表错配和供需问题。 您认为政府和中央银行应采取哪些措施来解决这些问题? 是否存在全球债务危机的可能性?
达利欧:大部分买了政府债券的人,尤其是那些借钱买债的人,都会损失很多钱。
大多数这些债券损失没有经过市场流通被确认,这意味着它们只是浮亏,但如果利率一直像现在一样高,它们将对这些债券持有人产生缓慢的、毁灭性的财务影响,导致这些债券持有人不会再购买更多的政府债券了。
这意味着在巨额赤字的情况下,债券供应相对于需求可能过多,因此全世界央行,包括最重要的美联储,将不得不通过印钞买债券来弥补购买需求的不足。
因此,对你的问题我给出肯定的回答:全球债务危机有可能发生,但不会是私人债务,它将与政府债务和大量印钞有关。
腾讯财经:据您透露,25 年来,您一直在将几乎所有的投资方法写下来并转化为算法。 当我们进入“生成式人工智能环境”时,您如何与它就决策制定进行沟通? 您是否遇到过生成式 AI 的决策和建议挑战您一贯的原则? 你能举个例子吗? 如何更好地将两者结合起来? 用人工智能交易真的更有利可图吗?
达利欧:你说对了,我一生围绕写下我投资原则的实践,和算法、机器决策以及生成式 AI, 正在以共生的方式走向融合。
我很惊讶于生成式人工智能 (GAI) 的表现,也正在实验,看它能否成为我工作中的决策伙伴。
Tencent Finance:In your dialogue with Zhu Min,you pointed out that “the world will be a completely different world in five years.”You identified five main driving forces:debt problems,internal politics,external geopolitics,natural behavior,and technological change. Which one of these do you consider to be the most challenging or uncertain?How should governments,enterprises,and inpiduals respectively respond in the next five years?
Dalio:None of these five forces that should be given more attention than the others because it is in their combined weight that big changes happen,and they reinforce each other in creating movements toward either the improvement or worsening of conditions.When they are all becoming more disruptive,as they are now doing,and are likely to become increasingly so over the next few years,we should expect a period of great disruption,especially in 2024 and beyond.Regarding what governments should do,history shows that very strong leadership that doesn’t tolerate extremism while exhibiting great restraint in managing conflict while making big structural changes is required.Big structural changes such as restructuring and monetizing debt in the balanced way that I call a”beautiful deleveraging”which I described in my book”Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises” is an example.Big structural changes are needed in all the important areas.
Tencent Finance:You discussed the global bond buying and financing behavior as well as the potential balance sheet mismatch and supply and demand problems that may result from these actions.What measures do you think governments and central banks should adopt to address these issues?Is there a possibility of a global debt crisis?
Dalio:Most everyone who bought government bonds,especially if these bond purchases were financed with short term borrowings,lost a lot of money. Most of these bond losses are not marked to market,meaning they don’t have to be recognized but if interest rates stay where they are,they will have slow crushing financial effects on these bond holders and these bond holders won’t want to buy more government bonds. That means that with the large deficit,there is likely to be too much supply of bonds relative to the demand so central banks,most importantly the Fed,will have to make up for any lack of buying by printing money and using it to buy debt. For that reason,my answer to your question is yes,there is a possibility of a global debt crisis but it won’t be with private debt; it will be with government debt and a lot of printing of money.
Tencent Finance:You stated that you have been writing down and transforming into algorithms almost all of your investment methods for 25 years. As we enter a “generative artificial intelligence environment”, how do you communicate with it about decision-making? Have you ever encountered generative AI’s decisions and suggestions that challenged your consistent principles? Could you give an example? How can you better integrate the two? Is trading with AI really more profitable?
Dalio:You are right about there now being a symbiotic convergence between my life-long path practice of writing down my principles and turning them into algorithms and decision-making machines and generative AI. I am very impressed with generative AI (GAI) and am experimenting with it to see how it can work as a decision-making partner.